What Oils Nigeria’s Political Machine?

10 min readFeb 9, 2023

(All references are below the article)

With the presidential elections upon us, it is expected that the atmosphere is charged and that permutations of who will win after the votes have been cast are rife. This is heightened by the intrigues of the long fuel queue (1) and the unbelievable scramble for new naira notes (2), which has resulted in protesters being shot and properties being destroyed (3). Over the weekend, trying to get a feel for what was happening across the country, I made calls to a few friends. A group I called was based in the city of Uyo, one of my favorite places in Nigeria. We discussed the chances of the three leading presidential candidates (4). Then, as we spoke, I asked of a casual acquaintance who used to supply us with fresh fish from Eket, a town about 50 kilometers from Uyo. Their answer surprised me. Nduese (name changed) is now contesting for a House of Representatives position under the umbrella of the dominant party in the state, Akwa Ibom.

I should have known. Nduese is a thickset Eket man with thinning dark hair and a smiling face. With him around, you get the sense that had he listened to his uncle, who works for one of the multinational oil companies, instead of succumbing to juvenile delinquencies and following a group of no-gooders, he would have ascended the corporate ladder fairly quickly. He was resourceful and witty, even if a bit mischievous in his dealings. I put the later down to him having a lot on his hands in those days. Since graduating from Akwa Ibom State Polytechnic, he blamed the local economy’s reliance on oil for not allowing him to hold down a stable job. He eventually volunteered that he much preferred being his own boss, a phrase used broadly for anyone who does not have a traditional office job. Nduese was a hustler.

The Meetings Near the House

Apparently, Nduese got friendly with a party man. I will call him Mr. P. Before I continue, let me give some background: In 2012, I had gone to Akwa Ibom for some projects. It was there that I made some friends. We would go out in the evenings to watch football matches in viewing centers. That was the year Lionel Messi scored a record-breaking 91 goals in 69 games. Nduese, being a fan of Barcelona, quickly gravitated towards us. It was he who suggested, after some time, that it was better we watch the games at home. It was more comfortable. He would supply the fresh fish, at a discount, of course. Another friend opted to do the cooking. The duties were distributed beautifully. Yours truly would be in charge of the remote-control device.

We noticed that on certain evenings and Saturday mornings, a group of men and women would enter a large compound near our apartment building. Then there would be noisy discussions. When we had the opportunity to hear what they were discussing, it was usually absolute nonsense about rallies, ferrying members from place to place, and strategies for seeing someone important. Not long after, they would troop out raucously. The whole shenanigan always looked ridiculous to us. Why can’t these people do something productive with their lives?

One day, there was an early Champions League game, and it coincided with the end of their meetings. One of those who had excitedly left the meeting joined us for an evening of football. His name is Mr. P. A petty trader by profession, Mr. P. would later try to convince us that he was not stupid. After every single meeting, they were paid. Nduese asked him how much. The man responded, “Sometimes, N500. Sometimes N1000.” Mr. P. needed all the money he could get. It took him about N200 to get to the meeting venue, and the extra N300 or N700 he made could supplement whatever he had to feed his family. I could not begrudge him, but I was also not interested in the rest of the conversation. In my haughtiness, the discussion was beneath me. What does an engineer stand to gain from such a discussion?

It wasn’t until I left the state for the north that I discovered Nduese had begun attending the political meetings himself. In subsequent elections, he became a registered election observer for his party. Already a hustler, he was always useful, always delivering a proper and comprehensive beating to the other parties in his ward. Not long after, Mr. P. (who was uneducated) saw an opening he could not take for whatever reason and handed it over to Nduese, striking a gentlemanly deal in the process. Nduese became the local government chairman. My friends told me on the call that it is all but certain that Nduese will win this month’s elections and be on his way to Abuja to represent his people. All in 12 years.

The Political System Works

Say what you want about the Nigerian political system, but what you cannot say is that it does not work. It will reward those who are in the system. And there is no incentive for individuals who have profited from this system to reinvent the wheel. They are content with the current situation and will fight tooth and nail to keep it that way. Those who understand compound interest are destined to collect it, while those who do not are doomed to pay it, according to Warren Buffett. Indeed, replace compound interest with the Nigerian political system, and you’ll see what I mean.

If you need proof that our political system is working, simply look at our governors, representatives, senators, and other elected people. The outcome is unmistakable; they are nearly all garbage. Heck, look at the presidential candidates of the 18 political parties contesting. Even better, look at the resumes of the top 3. One has had the FBI raid his house over evidence related to the alleged bribery by William Jefferson, a congressman, in exchange for help with contracts in Nigeria. Jefferson was eventually sentenced to 13 years in prison (5). The other one has been indicted in a drug cartel’s dealings in the United States, which led to his forfeiture of $460,000 (6). Curiously, he has never addressed the topic. And he will not, because removing that blot does not matter in these elections. But you can’t dismiss their hustle. “Good” people don’t participate in the process because it’s simply too nasty for them. Nature, of course, abhors a vacuum.

Nigeria is currently ruled by a mediocre tyranny. It begins at that house, where Mr. P. goes and grows more forceful with each step, yet silently. By the time the “elite” notice, the monster of mediocrity has become entrenched and believes it has earned its rite of passage. In truth, this is not unique to Nigeria. In Britain, there is hustings, which refers to a public meeting or forum where candidates in an election campaign address and engage with voters (7). In America, there is stumping (8). But it is another kettle of fish in Nigeria.

There Is No Savior

I admire the momentum that is building in the run-up to the presidential elections, and it is my sincere hope that the people’s true choice prevails. But even if a magician becomes president in May 2023, his magic would not good enough to meet the expectations his followers are heaping on him. The system makes it so. There will be more than 1,000 political positions to be filled in the Senate, House of Representatives, Gubernatorial, and State Houses of Assembly (9). The Nigerian constitution does not grant the president the powers that many believe it does (I plan to write more about the Nigerian president’s power limitations in another article). Leave aside the huge problems the nation has that would stump even Lee Kwan Yew, the political system does not leave much room for the president to do what he wants and how he wants to do it. No matter what happens at the end of February, I guarantee that you will be disappointed. And it may not necessarily be because the person you place your hopes in is incompetent. Electing him is far better than the alternatives, but he will only be able to do so much.

One of the biggest mistakes made by Nigeria’s elite is attempting to start at the top, where the air may be cleaner and they are less likely to get their hands dirty. But after reading thus far, you already see why that strategy is flawed.

The existing system benefits politicians because they can enter politics for little money and repay their investment within a few months. This is one of the reasons why our politicians favor a selection process over an election. There is no use in allowing individuals to vote freely. If you had been attending meetings at the back of my house for two years and were made a candidate to run for LG Chairman at election time, wouldn’t you prefer that only the individuals who had been attending meetings with you vote? Why bother with folks who never show up to meetings like me?

The Reward of the Elites

You can also see why it is in the best interest of area boys and louts to make sure as few people as possible vote. They consider their lives dependent on the outcome of the elections. Hungry people have no long-term needs. They simply don’t think that far. The worse the economy becomes, the better it is for those who supply money shared with Mr. P. and his comrades. Hungry people cannot be deep thinkers, and they really couldn’t care less about corruption in so far as it favors them.

The “elite” are frequently forced to go by appointment. However, even then, you are answering to a man who has a very different perspective than you, and he may dismiss you on the spur of the moment. When Muhammadu Buhari appointed Doyin Salami as his chief economic adviser (10), I could only shake my head. A pro-business titan advising a man who believes that closing the border for two years against its neighbors is the best way to grow an economy? (11) I would rather watch a game of Pokemon. More than a year later, the state of the economy shows clearly that the president could not have been listening to Dr. Salami. Under this system, the best of the best are left to kowtow to those who have invested huge sums to be elected.

This is why good people in Nigeria are always outnumbered and outgunned; they don’t comprehend the system, and even if they do, they are unwilling to participate in it. They’re on the run from everything.

The Disadvantage of Not Participating

What if I had persuaded my friends to forego a football game in order to investigate what was going on with Mr. P. and his associates? What if we had gotten there and elevated the discussion? What if we had strategized to woo everyone to our side? Is it unthinkable that we would be policymakers in that local government? Is it unthinkable that we would have gotten more like-minded people and gotten into the State House? I admit that, as a Yoruba man, it would be difficult for me to be elected in an Ibibio community. Still, I could have influenced my Ibibio friends to be in good political positions. Instead of watching helplessly as a band of thugs take decisions that affect my life, would it not have been better if it were likeminded people who have heard the stories like how Shenzen, a small fishing village, attracted more than 58,000 foreign invested projects with a combined utilized value of $65 billion by 2014?

What is the advantage of not participating? And can change originate anywhere else than from the ground up? If you have wondered how Dino Melaye became a senator (12) or Yahaya Bello became a governor, it is not rocket science. The genius of it all is in its simplicity.

The engine of politics is what it is. You cannot change it. What we need are people like Mr. P. and his comrades, but who are motivated by a desire to advance the common good as opposed to “delivering” their wards to the highest bidder. Let’s never forget that a certain Barack Obama started his life in politics as a community organizer on the Chicago’s South Side (14). Kemi Badenoch is a prominent UK politician today, but she joined the Conservative Party in 2005 at the age of 25 (15).

I am from the North Central. We have six states: Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, and Plateau (FCT is excluded). In 2019, the system produced the following governors (16): Samuel Ortom (Benue), Yahaya Bello (Kogi), AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (Kwara), Abdullahi Sule (Nasarawa), Abubakar Sani Bello (Niger), and Simon Lalong (Plateau). Look at that list again, and you will not see a single person who performed well by global standards. Go to their states and see how ravaged by poverty the people are. And it is not as if there are no brilliant administrators in Nigeria, whether at home or abroad. It is simply because we have refused to participate.

A 4-Year Cycle Will Not Work

It may be true that Seun Kuti’s recent video is an idealistic spew of highfalutin nonsense (17), but when he says that only the people of Nigeria can save the country, don’t be too quick to dismiss it and say the people will come out en masse on February 25. The real saving of the country will be done at the wards and house-to-house meetings. If you believe you can change the country by queuing every four years and stamping your thumb on a piece of paper, then whatever you see, just take it like that.

I mean, most of you have no idea who represents your constituency in the House of Representatives or the Senate. You will simply vote for the party, leaving the rest to hope for a miracle. Well, I have a bridge to sell you.