Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Game of Strategy

Any serious country observing Saudi Arabia’s quest to develop its nuclear power will recognize how the rivalry between the US, China, and Russia can only escalate tensions further.

For countries like Nigeria, the question arises: how can they leverage this situation to their advantage? Kissinger’s classic axiom that encapsulates the realist theory of International Relations comes to mind: “There are no permanent friends, only permanent interests.”

With Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s arrival in Riyadh today, Saudi Arabia is expected to renew its requests for US assistance in developing the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear energy program.

Saudi Arabia aims to diversify its energy sources, shifting away from “dirty” energy like oil and gas towards clean energy alternatives. Among the G20 nations, Saudi Arabia stands as the sole country heavily reliant on fossil fuels for electricity. By 2050, their goal is to transition at least 50% towards clean energy — an ambitious undertaking. Nevertheless, they have chosen to take a significant step towards achieving it in the most impactful manner possible.

Boasting up to 5% of the world’s uranium reserves, Saudi Arabia claims it could swiftly establish a nuclear power program with the right foreign support. They have turned to the US, the most capable nuclear power globally, for assistance. As bait, they have dangled the prospect of progress in Israeli-Saudi relations — a prominent regional objective for the US.

They make the promise, “We will normalize relations with Israel if you help us with this. Furthermore, we will grant you substantial oversight of any nuclear program we pursue.”

Saudi Arabia also highlights the US role in aiding the United Arab Emirates in becoming the first Arab nation to launch a nuclear power plant in 2021, using it as a persuasive argument for their own nuclear aspirations: “If the UAE can achieve it, why not us?”

However, the US remains cautious. Saudi Arabia already possesses an advanced missile program, and granting them the ability to develop a nuclear program may make them overly powerful. Considering their rivalry with Iran, if Tehran decides to pursue nuclear weapons, it is highly likely that Riyadh will follow suit. Israel’s energy minister expressed concerns about being exploited as cover for the development of civilian nuclear energy, citing instances where Iraq and Libya utilized civilian programs as a disguise for clandestine bomb-making.

Compounding the situation is the perceived lack of trust in Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, as asserted by some Western experts. Al Jazeera has linked him to a web of lies surrounding the aftermath of the renowned journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder. German-owned media outlet DW characterizes him as enigmatic and difficult to read. Consequently, many in US diplomatic circles believe there is a possibility that this norm-defying leader might be bluffing about normalizing relations with Israel. If he reneges on his words, what actions can be taken? Despite his excesses, his influence in ensuring stability in the Middle East remains significant.

In response, Saudi Arabia asserts, “Too bad for you. If you refuse to cooperate, we will turn to China and Russia. The ball is in your court.”