Obasanjo — A President Who Fell Short of Glory

What would have happened had Olusegun Obasanjo foisted someone in the mold of who he was in his first term on us after his regime came to an end? World over, nascent democracies need that for progress to be compounded. Singapore, Botswana, South Africa or even South Korea. If Obasanjo had put aside his ego and done that, what is the possibility that we’d find ourselves in this present quagmire?

During his regime, yes regime!, we were indeed making slow but steady progress.

Okay…let me remind you what Obasanjo did in office…

A RECAP OF ACHIEVEMENTS

The average oil price in 1999 when President Olusegun Obasanjo returned as Nigeria’s civilian president was $17.80 per barrel. Our official foreign reserves that year amounted to just $5.4bn. GDP size was $50.48bn which at then exchange rate of N92.69/$ was only N4.6trillion. Throughout Obasanjo’s first term, the highest oil price was $26.10 in 2000, with slight declines to $24.50 and $25.40 in 2001 and 2002.

In spite of relatively low oil prices, Obasanjo grew FX reserves to over $10bn in 2001 before falling to around $7.5bn in 2002 and 2003. The exchange rate depreciated by 30% by 2002 falling to N120.97. On the policy front, the main economic achievement of Obasanjo’s first term was telecommunications sector deregulation which transformed Nigeria’s telephony and later internet/data sectors. No rational person will deny Obasanjo the credit for the over 150 million active lines in Nigeria today.

He also established the EFCC and ICPC. Obasanjo’s main political achievements in his first term were stabilizing our democracy and re-establishing Nigeria in the global community.

Obasanjo recorded more significant economic achievements in his second term, enabled by the arrival of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Charles Soludo, Fola Adeola and others into economic positions. The most important milestones were pension reforms, banking consolidation and the revolutionary Paris Club Debt Write-off.

Okonjo-Iweala introduced the oil price rule that enabled the accumulation of “excess crude” savings in addition to our foreign reserves. The “Excess Crude Account” (ECA) starting from nil in 2003 was $24.36bn by December 2006 while foreign reserves were over $42billion totaling over $66billion of sovereign savings.

Before Obasanjo’s administration, Nigeria’s GDP growth had been painfully slow since 1987, and only managed 3 percent between 1999/2000. However, under Obasanjo, the growth rate doubled to 6 percent until he left office. In 2002, Nigeria’s real GDP growth was 14.6%, arguably the highest in the world.

A LESSON FROM SINGAPORE

So back at foisting someone like him after leaving office. It’s interesting that the same way Obasanjo orchestrated his successor was the same way LKY eased Goh into administration.

More about Goh Chok Tong. While it is true that LKY foisted him because he liked him and was loyal, the major reason he was liked was because he got things done. He started as a Senior Minister of State for Finance. Then got promoted Minister for Trade and Industry. Then Minister for Health and eventually Minister for Defence. Even Tony Tan who was LKY’s initial first pick couldn’t object because Goh performed everywhere he went. I need not tell you that Goh was phenomenal in his Prime Ministership.

Obasanjo could have done the same. And yes, Obasanjo had that streak of authoritarianism in him. Going by all we have seen about Obasanjo, read about him, and recounted by several people who served under his administration, Obasanjo was more authoritarian than some military regimes in other lands. For one, he had no regards for the rule of law that does not favour him. This was a man who changed Senate presidents like diapers.

What more can you ask in an authoritarian leader?

Obasanjo is a typical Yoruba showman. He would prostrate for a 5-year old if that’s what will make him have his way. He was a silent manipulator who would have erected your gallow yet eulogize you in public.

It’s instructive that Obasanjo dealt with problems like an authoritarian leader. The Odi massacre was a case in point. He did what Idi Amin would have done not minding the international outcry. He instructed soldiers to level an entire community. Terrible stuff. Nothing happened to him.

He shrugged off OPC. Shariah had nothing on him. Boko Haram never sprung up during his time. Bakassi boys remained a local cult. Like any other regime, he was not perfect, but it is interesting that the Plateau killings didn’t spread.

He did the little he wanted to do. GDP grew. Inflation retreated. Standard of living rose. Some industries got reformed. We became the darling of investors.

A MISSED CHANCE

But he went no further. He swallowed the accolades of the praise-singers and gulped their exaltations, and got moved to start lobbying for a third term. He inflamed sentiments and got burnt.

He was a leader that did so much yet fell way behind the people’s expectations. He is the architect of the nation’s current misfortunes.