How Probability Unravels Charlatans

You have heard about the issue of Odumeje and Ada Jesus, right? If you ahve not, then check this out. The summary though is that a certain Ada Jesus was fond of dissing the popular pastor in public. She got ill and Odumeje took responsibility. Now, Prophet Odumeje vows never to forgive comedienne Ada Jesus after her family brought her to his church to beg for forgiveness over her ailment

I have not been able to cast my mind off this issue. How a few people, usually charismatic in nature, have been able to master some fundamental principles and use them in sinister ways, often for pecuniary gains.

Take the concept of probability as an example.

The average person has no real grasp of Probability and how amazing it is. We can demonstrate this with a simple question:

Which of the following options is more likely in ten tosses of a coin?

A. H T H H T T H T T H

B. H H H H H H H H H H

The answer is “neither”. One is just as likely as the other one. The only reason it appears to be less likely is because of something called the Gambler’s Fallacy.

Gambler’s fallacy is the logical trap of thinking that a coin is “due” to come up tails. But a coin has no memory. Every time you flip a coin, it’s a 50/50 chance.

Or, consider something that has a 1 in ONE MILLION chance of occurring. Sounds rare, doesn’t it? It does until you realize that it could happen 200 times today in Nigeria alone. Or over 7,000 times worldwide.

Probability is an infinitely powerful concept. Given enough time and enough events, lots of things can “line up” so that it appears that the cause must be something extraterrestrial, extraordinary or even supernatural……but it’s perfectly natural.

The knowledge of Probability will easily help you see charlatans for what they are.