EXPLAINER: What’s Happening Between Russia & Ukraine
(References available after the article)
A fellow sent me a DM wondering about the Russia-Ukraine situation he’s been seeing on the news for a while now and I think my explanation might be beneficial to you from an international politics viewpoint.
Since the last quarter of last year, Russia has deployed troops along its border with Ukraine, raising fears of an invasion. Belarus which is bordering Ukraine and has its President as a friend of Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has also allowed its border with Ukraine to be used. Russia currently has tens of thousands of troops stationed on three sides of Ukraine. (1)
With such numbers, leaders from throughout the world, including the United States, NATO, and the European Union, have warned Russia against any invasion, threatening punishment if it attacks Ukraine. (2) However, over the last week, things have gotten pretty fast and the United States has placed 8,500 troops on high alert for deployment in case Russia sneezes. (3)
OKAY, WHAT’S THE DEAL WITH UKRAINE?
Ukraine and Russia were once part of the 16-country Soviet Union which collapsed on 26 December 1991. (A fascinating book about the collapse is Stephen Kotkin’s “Armageddon Averted: The Soviet Collapse, 1970–2000”). (4) However, following the collapse, more than 90% of Ukrainians chose to become an independent country, breaking away from the USSR.
Since that breakup, the relationship between Russia and Ukraine has been tense.
In a way, it’s a fight between Russia and the West. Russia has always wanted to maintain influence over Ukraine saying that it is one people with Ukraine. (5) Whereas, the West led by the United States says Ukraine is a free and democratic state and no country should lord it over them. (6) Putin also points to the ‘game’ NATO is playing with Ukraine and in the Eastern Europe region as evidence of interference.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military alliance between the United States, Canada, and their European allies. It was formed in the wake of World War II to keep the peace and encourage political cooperation on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. (7) When the Soviet Union fell in 1991, there was an agreement that NATO would not expand into Central and Eastern Europe. (8)
This is no longer the case as the most recent additions to the alliance are Montenegro in 2017 (in Central Europe) and North Macedonia in 2020 (in Southeast Europe). (9) The three countries that are currently classed as ‘aspiring members’ are Bosnia & Herzegovina, Georgia and Ukraine.
That’s where the problem lies for Russia. Russia says that NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe poses a threat to its national security and that it is well within its rights to defend its own interests. (10) NATO says it cannot stop any country that wants to join since it has an “open-door policy”. Russia among other reasons sees Ukraine joining NATO as a problem. Last year, Putin wrote an essay in which he claimed that Russia has a historical and cultural claim over Ukraine. (11)
2014 WAS A FOCAL POINT
That year, Ukraine’s pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was driven out of office. He had decided to put a trade pact with the EU on hold and that marked the end of his tenure. (12) Once he left, a President much closer to the West took office. Of course, Russia wasn’t happy about this.
Crimea, a semi-autonomous region that was given to Ukraine when USSR collapsed, was taken over by Pro-Russian separatists. (13) While Kremlin said he had no hand in it, by March 2014, Russia had formally annexed the peninsula with Putin saying that it is a reversal of a historic injustice inflicted on Russia. (14) That singular action started an 8-year ongoing war between the two countries that has led to the death of 13,000 people. (15)
A ceasefire was reported called in 2015 when France and Germany helped to broker a peace deal that returned Crimea to Ukraine.
SO WHY THE TURMOIL AGAIN?
An intelligence report in early December said that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine in early 2022. (16) Among other things, it is said that Putin is not happy with Ukraine’s push to join NATO saying what the country is doing is tantamount to a ‘red line’. (17) Kremlin has asked the United States to guarantee legally that Ukraine would not join. (18) Of course, Biden has refused to do that. Putin is also pissed off that NATO allies are sending ships, fighter jets, and putting forces on standby.
WHAT’S IT GOING TO BE?
It is left to be seen. Already, some employees at the US and UK embassies in Kyiv have been advised to return home. (19)(20) President Biden has claimed that the United States has already deployed over $600 million in “advanced, defensive equipment” to the Ukrainians and that Putin must choose “either demilitarization or dialogue; aggression or the consequences.” (21) Other countries like Denmark, France, Spain, and the Netherlands are also sending in resources to help Ukraine. (22)
Kremlin has given its conditions to remove the troops from the borders of Ukraine. It demanded that NATO deny membership to Ukraine and other ex-Soviet countries and roll back its military deployments in Central and Eastern Europe. (23) The West roundly rejected Russia’s key asks. (24) And earlier today, Putin’s government said there were “few reasons for optimism” since the US and its allies have made it clear they would not accede to Russia’s requests. (25)
What’s interesting is that not for once has Russia admitted it would invade Ukraine, but it continues to enlarge its military presence near its borders with the country. Some have said that Putin is merely bluffing but others have cautioned that nothing should be taken for granted citing Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 and its indirect invasion of Crimea as cautionary tales. (26)
1. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/europe/ukraine-russia-tensions-explainer-cmd-intl/index.html
2. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/25/us-uk-and-europe-totally-united-in-the-face-of-russia-threat-to-ukraine-biden-says
3. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/24/politics/biden-troops-europe/index.html
4. https://www.amazon.com/Armageddon-Averted-Soviet-Collapse-1970-2000/dp/0195368630
5. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/07/putins-ukraine-rhetoric-driven-by-distorted-view-of-neighbour
6. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-ukraine/
7. https://www.thebalance.com/nato-purpose-history-members-and-alliances-3306116
8. https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-historical-dispute-behind-russias-threat-to-invade-ukraine
9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO
10. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2021-12-28/what-putin-really-wants-ukraine
11. https://apnews.com/article/europe-government-and-politics-ukraine-ef69cabe10d7c1744b9bb1d683c5ebe8
12. https://edition.cnn.com/2014/02/18/world/europe/ukraine-protests-explainer/index.html
13. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26364891
14. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/world/europe/ukraine.html
15. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War
16. https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/04/us-intelligence-finds-russia-planning-ukraine-offensive-523760
17. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/30/russia-will-act-if-nato-countries-cross-ukraine-red-lines-putin-says
18. https://www.axios.com/putin-biden-call-ukraine-nato-d92b3a6d-e8ba-44e7-b3aa-b01fc5432c49.html
19. https://abcnews.go.com/International/state-department-orders-diplomats-families-leave-us-embassy/story?id=82430098
20. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60106416
21. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/01/19/remarks-by-president-biden-in-press-conference-6/
22. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_191039.htm
23. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-putin-nato-invasion-demands-rcna9116
24. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/russia-demands-us-ukraine.html
25. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/us-nato-russia-demands-ukraine-invasion-diplomacy-rcna13741
26. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Russo-Georgian_War
